Cannabis legalization may hit a ‘red wall’ at the ballot box

Cannabis legalization is on the ballot again this November.

Voters in Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota will decide whether to allow adults 21 and up in their states to use cannabis recreationally.

Voters in Nebraska will decide whether to allow medical access under a doctor’s care.

Voters in Arkansas will see a question about medical access on their ballot, but the state supreme court ruled that the votes can’t be counted because the name and title of the measure were “misleading.”

The results of these ballot measures obviously matter to residents of each state, but they also will be telling for the future of the cannabis legalization movement. That’s because these states are all so-called red states where Republicans dominate state politics. They are part of the legalization movement’s biggest obstacle – what I call the “red wall.”

And because federal legalization is unlikely in the next few years, red wall states are now the front line of the fight over cannabis reform.

A bipartisan coalition in the beginning

Cannabis legalization hasn’t always been so partisan.

In fact, bipartisanship has been key to the success of the contemporary legalization movement, which began in the 1990s.

How do I know? Because I’ve been told as much by the people who made it happen.

Since 2014, I’ve been researching cannabis legalization in the U.S.. I’ve been trying to understand the contemporary legalization movement’s success and what it means for the future of U.S. drug policy. As an anthropologist, my process is to go where the action is and talk to people with lived experience.

And so I’ve been talking to people in Colorado. In 2012, it became one of the first two states to legalize recreational use of cannabis, also called “adult use.”

Today, 48 states and Washington D.C. have approved cannabis for some kind of medical use, although 10 of those states have legalized only the limited use of oils containing low levels of THC, the active compound in cannabis. Adult use for anyone 21 and older is now allowed in 24 states and Washington.

This is a dramatic change that is undoing decades of prohibition.

Any political movement takes thousands of people to be successful, but it also takes leaders. In Colorado, attorney Brian Vicente and activist Mason Tvert played a pivotal role. With support from the Marijuana Policy Project, they spent most of the 2000s building the movement that made recreational legalization possible in Colorado.

When I asked Vicente and Tvert how they made it happen, they emphasized the same thing: To be effective, they had to build a new kind of coalition. They had to appeal to people who had no personal interest in consuming cannabis.

In Colorado, they made the case that marijuana should be regulated like alcohol, with tax money going to schools. The fact that Colorado allowed ballot initiatives was also key. It let activists take the issue directly to voters, bypassing opposition from the governor and other elected officials.

The strategy worked.

Liberals liked the social justice arguments. Conservatives liked that it enhanced individual liberty. And a broad cross section of voters liked that it would generate tax revenue and let the criminal justice system focus on more serious threats to public safety.

These voters made for a powerful coalition. And for years, such coalitions helped legalization measures pass in blue states like Oregon and California, and in red states like Alaska and Montana.

Hitting the red wall

But since 2020, legalization has become more partisan.

Of the 26 states where cannabis remains illegal for adult use, 20 are red states with a Republican trifecta, meaning that Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature and the governor’s office.

Another four – Kansas, Wisconsin, Kentucky and North Carolina – have Republican-controlled state legislatures and Democratic governors.

Pennsylvania is the only state in the nation where legislative control is split. Medical cannabis was legalized there in 2016, but recreational use is not allowed.

And Hawaii is the lone blue state that has yet to legalize recreational cannabis. A slimmer majority of voters support it than in other blue states, and there are unique concerns such as the potential impact on the tourist economy.

All told, 92% of the states where adult use is still illegal are dominated – if not completely controlled – by Republicans who are much less likely to support legalization than either Democrats or independents. This is true of both elected leaders and rank-and-file party members.

What’s more, 16 of the 26 states that have not legalized adult use cannabis don’t have a ballot initiative process, so supporters can’t take the issue directly to voters. The states with measures on the ballot this November are part of the minority that do.

Voters in states without ballot initiatives have no choice but to wait on their state legislatures to act. But most Republican-controlled legislatures have shown little interest in the issue, even when the majority of voters in the state support it – like in Iowa.

Will the red wall hold this November?

Based on polling and precedent, the red wall will likely hold during the 2024 election.

In South Dakota, most voters oppose adult use legalization, so the measure is likely to fail for the third time.

Voters in conservative North Dakota have also rejected adult use legalization twice before, which makes success this year unlikely. On the other hand, it has more support from Republican state legislators than in other states, and more voters are undecided on the issue.

The medical measure in Nebraska is likely to pass, but its future is uncertain. It faces an ongoing legal challenge spurred in part by the state’s Attorney General Mike Hilgers who is a staunch opponent of cannabis legalization.

And even if it survives legal challenge, that does not mean recreational legalization is around the corner. The most recent polling of Nebraskans shows lower support for recreational use than medical use, particularly among Republicans.

Florida could go either way

The wild card is Florida. It has already legalized medical cannabis, and supporters have been trying for years to get adult use on the ballot.

Polling this summer showed a majority of Republicans supported it, but more recent polls show a slim majority now oppose the referendum.

It still probably has the votes to pass, but it faces a few obstacles.

First, it must pass with 60% of the vote.

Second, it has divided party leaders, with the state’s two highest-profile Republicans, Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis, taking different positions on the issue. Trump says he’s voting yes, while DeSantis is a strong no.

And third, it has drawn the ire of some legalization supporters for potentially giving disproportionate control of the market to a small group of large cannabis companies. The concern is that the amendment as written does not require the state to increase the number of licensed businesses. Only already-licensed businesses would be guaranteed the opportunity to expand into the recreational cannabis market.

These same companies are the primary funders of the initiative, with Trulieve alone donating most of the more than US$90 million raised by the Yes campaign. The company already runs more than 150 medical dispensaries in Florida and is one of the largest cannabis companies in the U.S..

Ironically, DeSantis’ No campaign has put concerns about corporate control at the center of its own messaging, creating a potential coalition between people who oppose adult use legalization under any circumstances and those who oppose it when there’s too much corporate control.

Trulieve, for its part, has filed a defamation suit against the Republican Party of Florida over the claims.

Where the movement goes from here

Unless there are significant surprises this November, legalization supporters will need to find a new strategy to appeal to red state voters and legislators. They will need to take concerns over public health and safety seriously, address the persistence of racial disparities in cannabis arrests in legalization states, tackle the growing corporate influence within the movement, and respond to the moral critiques of people like former Alabama Senator and U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions who feel that, simply put, “good people don’t smoke marijuana.”

William Garriott's research has been funded by the Wenner-Gren Foundation for Anthropological Research.