Electoral Engagement Metrics Put Clinton at 88%
- Written by Len Stein
NEW YORK, NY MAY 18, 2016 - A new electoral engagement poll conducted by Brand Keys, the New York-based brand engagement and customer loyalty research consultancy (brandkeys.com), places Hillary Clinton significantly ahead of Democratic rival Bernie Sanders and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.
In this wave of polling, Brand Keys found the following overall candidate assessments:
Clinton leading Sanders 88% to 80%,
Clinton ahead of Trump (79%) by 9 percentage points.
What 4,300 Democratic, Republican, and Independent Voters Think
The new electoral engagement poll numbers were obtained via interviews with 1,500 registered Democrats, 1,450 registered Republicans, and 1,350 self-declared Independents drawn from the nine U.S. Census Regions. A difference of 5% is significant at the 95% confidence level. The model is a highly validated process used every Presidential election since Bill Clinton ran in 1992. It has predicted the winner in every Presidential election with the exception of the 2000 race where George W. Bush beat the predicted winner, Al Gore with an overall 86% success rate.
Polling every presidential election cycle gives us the opportunity to recalibrate our measures every four years so we know were capturing any significant shifts in electoral and voter values, noted Robert Passikoff, Brand Keys founder and president.
Electoral Engagement assessments are based on voter perceptions of a candidates strength versus the voters own notions of what an 'Ideal President' (calibrated to be 100%) looks like to them.
Emotional engagement assessments, whether for pizza brands or political parties, measures what consumers think as opposed to what they say they think, said Passikoff. From an emotional engagement perspective they provide the most accurate read on how consumers, or in the case, voters, will behave. This has been the most emotional election cycle weve seen in a long time.
How Voters See Their Ideal President
Electoral engagement is measured according to four drivers (and expectation levels voters hold for each driver) that voters use to define their Ideal President on an emotional and rational basis and use to compare candidates.
The order of electoral engagement drivers and what voters expect vary in terms of whats important to Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, noted Passikoff, resulting, as one might expect, in different party views, voter standards, and candidate preferences. The drivers can be briefly described (alphabetically) as follows:
Action:
Does the candidate have a comprehensive, realistic, well-considered plan for solving the problems facing the country?
Compassion:
Does the candidate care about all the people?
Perception:
Does the candidate have a deep understanding of the problems facing the county?
Resolve:
Does the candidate have the strength and leadership to guide the country?
Order of the Electoral Engagement Drivers By Political Affiliation
The order of these electoral engagement drivers for Republicans Ideal President looks like this:
1. Resolve
2. Perception
3. Action
4. Compassion
Democrats see their Ideal President as follows:
1. Perception
2. Resolve
3. Compassion
4. Action
Independents view their Ideal President as follows:
1. Resolve
2. Perception
3. Compassion
4. Action
For Democrats, the driver with the highest voter expectations is Compassion. For Republicans, its Action. Independents are interesting because they see their Ideal President has having the first-two drivers of the Republican Ideal and the last-two drivers of the Democratic Ideal, with highest expectations for the Perception driver said Passikoff.
That probably explains why Independents are more often likely to vote for a Republican candidate for President yet maintain a certain degree of distance from the two established political parties. But this year presents a vastly different political landscape, so it will be interesting to see where they end up.
The Elector Engagement Votes Are In
Democrats Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
1. Perception 85% 89%
2. Resolve 89% 80%
3. Compassion 83% 87%
4. Action 94% 70%
Republicans Donald J. Trump
1. Resolve 85%
2. Perception 89%
3. Action 79%
4. Compassion 65%
The order of the drivers tells us how voters are looking at their Ideal President. How well a candidate is seem to meet voter expectations for each electoral engagement driver is a good barometer for strategy and messaging, said Passikoff. But if you look at the candidates overall weighted averages, its an even better barometer of whos going to win. Overall Hillary Clinton rated 88%, Bernie Sanders 80%, and Donald Trump 79%.
While the individual political party electoral engagement drivers havent shifted this election year, noted Passikoff, There have been a lot of voter value migration and shifts in the traditional political paradigm.
And it might be worth remembering what Will Rogers said: I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat, something that might more aptly apply to the Republican Party this year, and a sentiment generally worth taking to heart. Because whether a political party or a consumer brand, if you are so disorganized that you are unable to meet customer expectations in the right way, you always lose in the marketplace.
Or, as is likely in this case, said Passikoff, In the voting booth.